Finally, I called the vet and on June 5 he said that he was 90% sure that it was an abscess and told me my horse is 1/5 lame (whatever that means). I am supposed to give him 1-2 grams of bute (depending on what he looks like that day); alternate sugardines and anamalax poultices; and I am allowed to keep him in very light work so long as he's comfortable (i.e. short times on the lunge line, and just walking around the ring with occasional trotting if he's in the mood).
We've been really diligent about doing all those things and I've even done the occasional Epsom salt hoof soak. Here are some photos of what his foot looked like this morning. Could this possibly be the abscess coming out?
Here's a photo of the "suspected area" from June 6, 2012:
Here's what it looked like this morning: